According to its proponents, the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership will stimulate growth in Europe and in the US. Projections endorsed by the European Commission point to positive, although negligible, gains in terms of GDP and personal incomes. In a paradox, these projections also show that any gains in Trans-Atlantic trade would happen at the expense of intra-EU trade reversing the process of European economic integration.
A new paper by Jeronim Capaldo from the Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University assess the effects of TTIP using the United Nations Global Policy Model, which incorporates more sensible assumptions on macroeconomic adjustment, employment dynamics, and global trade. It projects that TTIP will lead to a contraction of GDP, personal incomes and employment. It also projects an increase in financial instability and a continuing downward trend in the labor share of GDP.
Download the working paper here.
Or the Executive Summary here.